LONDON—U.K. media research firm MIDiA Research says it expects revenues for the subscription VOD market worldwide to reach $131.6 billion in 2023 and grow nearly 25%, garnering $321.9 billion by 2030.
The researcher painted a mixed picture in which a slowdown in the global economy will negatively impact the SVOD market, which grew rapidly during the global pandemic lockdown of the past three years. It said future growth will be driven primarily by an influx of Asia-Pacific subscribers, citing the recent success of such titles as Netflix’s “Squid Game” and “Parasite,” which won the Academy Award for Best Picture in 2020.
According to the report, the global SVOD market was valued at $105.7 billion in 2022, representing a 24.6% increase from 2021’s $84.8 billion. While growth rates are expected to decline from the high of 46.6% in 2020, subscription revenues are forecasted to grow by 24.4% to reach $131.6 billion in 2023.
The report also highlights regional trends, with North America accounting for 18.2% of global video subscribers and 38.6% of global streaming revenue in 2023. However, by 2030, North America’s share is expected to decrease to 13.2% of global subscribers and 32.2% of global revenue.
In contrast, the Asia-Pacific region is poised to continue its dominance in the industry, with 56.2% of global subscribers and 32.2% of global revenues in 2023, and 58.8% of global subscribers and 34.5% of global subscription revenues in 2030, overtaking North America to become the largest revenue market by 2030. Disney is expected to maintain its market leadership between 2023-2030, with Netflix now established as the second largest subscriber base.
“The subscription distribution dominance of Asia-Pacific will prompt intense competition from Western SVOD services, as they try to corner the world’s biggest regional market,” said Tim Mulligan, Lead Video Analyst for MIDiA Research. ‘Western SVOD content commissioning will be partly recalibrated towards Asian movies and shows that speak to global audiences. Efforts to discover the next ‘Squid Game’ or ‘Parasite’ will amplify Asia-Pacific culture globally to create a new golden age for Asian entertainment that will compete directly with Hollywood mainstream studio output”
Perry Gresham, Forecast and Modelling Analyst for MIDiA Research, explained the researcher’s “bear scenario” on the market.
“For the first time, [we created] an alternative forecast that considers the case in which the current recession has more impact on video streaming subscriptions than we anticipate,” Gresham said. “It represents the scenario where, in a harsh 18-month recession, subscribers cancel some number of their subscriptions. Subscription growth over the next two years would more than half. A post-recession rebound will eventually see the gap in subscriptions narrow to just below base—with recovery varying by region. North America and Europe remain the furthest below their base scenario in the years leading up to 2030.”
“After eight years of steady expansion, global subscriber numbers will have neared their peak by 2030, added Ben Woods, Video Analyst for MIDiA Research. “That leaves Western SVOD services with a narrowing window of opportunity. With competition intensifying from indigenous services within Asia Pacific and emerging markets, gaining those remaining subscribers will be tough.”